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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."