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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.